The Fed was on autopilot. Its forward guidance made clear that market participants could set their watches to four interest rate hikes in 2018. That’s…
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Not Buying What the Fed is Selling
Closest Thing to a Fat Pitch in Investing
“Interest rates go up and down, stock markets boom and bust, but human psychology never changes. I believe that studying how people think about and react to markets—and particularly studying the most common mistakes investors make—can give us an edge...
read moreThe New Age Investor
“Behind the recent surge in retail investing is a younger, often new-to-investing, and aggressive cohort not afraid to employ leverage.” Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid…
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Beating the Bubble Horse
“I’m just waiting for the bubble to pop.” – Anonymous potential client Have you ever met the type that thinks everything is in a bubble?…
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Perspective on Rising Bond Yields
“Bonds are dead.” – Warren Buffett via CNBC The recent uptick in yields has the reignited the “bonds will get crushed” angry mob. We can…
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Bitcoin, What Of It?
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase…
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Investing at All-Time Highs
In the early years of the smartphone, it was quite common to carry a personal cell and a work cell. Eventually, we wised up at…
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Is the 4% Rule Dead?
Mental shortcuts or heuristics are used to make quick decisions, either because of time constraints or to simplify a complex problem. The further away a…
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Is Inflation Coming?
The health and wellness gurus will tell you that they meditate for two hours, exercise, and eat egg whites all before 6am. I check my…
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Monte Carlo Analysis: Worthless or Worthwhile?
“Oh, Monte Carlo, I’ve done that. It’s worthless!” “This simulation is the greatest thing ever!” “I don’t know what I’m going to do. I’m waiting…
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