Perspective on Rising Bond Yields
“Bonds are dead.” – Warren Buffett via CNBC The recent uptick in yields has the reignited the “bonds will get crushed” angry mob. We can…
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Closest Thing to a Fat Pitch in Investing
“Interest rates go up and down, stock markets boom and bust, but human psychology never changes. I believe that studying how people think about and react to markets—and particularly studying the most common mistakes investors make—can give us an edge...
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Bitcoin, What Of It?
“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase…
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Investing at All-Time Highs
In the early years of the smartphone, it was quite common to carry a personal cell and a work cell. Eventually, we wised up at…
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Is the 4% Rule Dead?
Mental shortcuts or heuristics are used to make quick decisions, either because of time constraints or to simplify a complex problem. The further away a…
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Is Inflation Coming?
The health and wellness gurus will tell you that they meditate for two hours, exercise, and eat egg whites all before 6am. I check my…
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Monte Carlo Analysis: Worthless or Worthwhile?
“Oh, Monte Carlo, I’ve done that. It’s worthless!” “This simulation is the greatest thing ever!” “I don’t know what I’m going to do. I’m waiting…
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Is Your Portfolio Drunk or Sober?
“Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.” – George S. Patton Let’s say I’m invited over to your house for dinner. We…
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The Blue Wave and Stock Returns
““We are beginning to see trends that people tend to fear what they are exposed to in the media. Many of the top 10 fears…
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Getting a Fat Pitch and Not Swinging
“Amateurs think the world should work the way they want it to. Professionals realize that they have to work with the world as they find…
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