If we tracked the most commonly asked client question over the past six months, a variation of “when is the next big recession coming?” would…
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Predicting the Next Recession
Closest Thing to a Fat Pitch in Investing
“Interest rates go up and down, stock markets boom and bust, but human psychology never changes. I believe that studying how people think about and react to markets—and particularly studying the most common mistakes investors make—can give us an edge...
read moreThe Fed’s About-Face
Just a year ago, the consensus was for the Federal Reserve to methodically increase interest rates to “normal” levels. As of this writing (7/9/2019), the…
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So Much for Rising Rates
The cycle ended with hardly a peep, but it looks like the Fed is done increasing rates. Source: YCharts The above graph shows the initial…
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Don’t Be Afraid of the ‘R’ Word
“Fear, greed, and hope have destroyed more portfolio value than any recession or depression we have ever been through.” – Jim O’Shaughnessy, Financial Author &…
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Let’s Talk Yield Curve Inversion
Picture a veteran stock broker roaming the halls of a investment advisory firm. His shirt is stained with coffee. From the look of his wrinkled suit it…
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The Housing Cycle
“Housing is often found at the heart of financial crises”– Fed Chair, Jay Powell summer of 2017 We are not experts on residential housing by…
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The Mystic of Rising Interest Rates
“Nobody likes high interest rates.” – Chanda Kochhar, CEO of ICICI Bank Interest rate prognostications have taken on a life of their own. Like a…
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Tariff Gamesmanship?
On March 1, 2018 President Trump unexpectedly announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The threat of a global trade war sent the S&P 500…
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Forget the Fed. Focus on Coordinated Global Tightening
2017 has been a great year for investors. Global equities are higher. Volatility is non-existent. Heck, even left-for-dead fixed income has posted positive returns. However,…
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